Bitcoin Price Steadies Near $65,000 as ETF Inflows Return Before Fed

Bitcoin recovered its footing on Monday, trading near $65,000 as United States spot exchange-traded funds recorded their first month of net inflows since April and traders positioned for the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on July 28 and 29. The largest cryptocurrency rose about 1.5 percent to $65,170 in the session, according to Interactive Crypto, clawing back part of the ground lost in a sharp two-day retracement late last week that erased roughly two thirds of its July gains.

The move leaves the bitcoin price in a holding pattern rather than a convincing rebound. Investing.com reported that the token spent much of the session pinned just above $64,000 as traders declined to build large positions before the central bank's decision, while The Sunday Guardian put the market's near-term trading band at $64,000 to $66,000, with $66,000 the level bulls must reclaim to restore momentum. The token remains far below its record high of $126,080 reached earlier in the cycle.

ETF Flows Turn Positive for the First Time Since April

The most constructive development for digital asset markets this month has been the slow thaw in institutional demand. Interactive Crypto reported that July is on track to be the first month of positive net flows into US spot bitcoin funds since April, even though cumulative net outflows for 2026 still stand near $4.8 billion. The reversal follows a bruising stretch in May and June, when TechTimes reported that a redemption streak drained about $2.7 billion from the products before cooler June jobs data ended the run in early July.

The recovery gathered pace through the month. IG noted that the funds logged five consecutive days of inflows totaling more than $600 million in the week before bitcoin touched a two-week high around $65,500 on July 21. Flow data has become the market's dominant signal: IG cited analysis suggesting ETF flows now explain roughly 45 percent of weekly moves in the bitcoin price, which helps explain why traders parse the daily creation and redemption figures as closely as any macro release.

Sentiment, however, has not kept up with the flows. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sat in the mid-20s to low 30s over the weekend, squarely in fear territory, per Interactive Crypto. Robin Singh, chief executive of the tax platform Koinly, argued last week that a return to record highs this year looks unlikely given how much institutional appetite has cooled from the peaks of the bull run.

Warsh Fed Holds the Key to the Next Move

The Federal Open Market Committee gathers Tuesday and Wednesday with the federal funds rate at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, and the outcome is widely viewed on crypto trading desks as the decider for whether the recent bottom holds. Pricing on CME FedWatch and on prediction venues including Polymarket and Kalshi has put the probability of a hold between roughly 82 percent and 93 percent in recent weeks, according to IG.

That calm is relatively new. As recently as mid-July, CoinDesk reported that bitcoin slipped as traders lifted bets on a July rate increase ahead of the June inflation report and congressional testimony from Chair Kevin Warsh. The report broke the fever: headline consumer prices fell 0.4 percent on the month, the steepest monthly decline since April 2020, and the annual rate slowed to 3.5 percent from 4.2 percent in May. Hike odds collapsed in the days that followed, and risk assets, crypto included, found a floor.

The statement and Warsh's press conference still carry event risk. Traders will focus on how the chair characterizes the inflation backdrop, energy prices and the bar for future increases. A hawkish surprise would strengthen the dollar and lift Treasury yields, the combination that The Sunday Guardian identified as the principal drag on token demand through July.

Ether Outperforms While XRP Leans on Support

The steadier tone extended beyond bitcoin, though unevenly. Ether traded in a band of roughly $1,844 to $1,880, according to The Sunday Guardian, after adding 1.2 percent on Sunday, and Interactive Crypto noted that ether-linked funds have shown relatively better resilience than their bitcoin counterparts through the summer redemption wave. The second-largest token entered the month with a market value near $233 billion. Resistance sits at $1,900, with $1,800 the level traders want defended.

XRP was the laggard, changing hands around $1.10 to $1.11 with a market value near $69 billion. The Sunday Guardian flagged the $1.08 to $1.10 zone as critical support, with technicians warning that a decisive break could open a much deeper decline. The token also remains sensitive to Washington: Interactive Crypto pointed to comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on July 21 regarding the Clarity Act, the market-structure legislation whose progress has become a swing factor for the payments-focused token and its peers.

Across the complex, the total cryptocurrency market value hovered near $2.3 trillion, and leverage remained light after last week's washout. Derivatives trackers recorded about $137 million in futures liquidations over 24 hours into the weekend, with long positions accounting for roughly $81 million of the total, modest figures that suggest speculative excess has largely been rinsed from the system.

Levels and Catalysts for a Pivotal Week

Technicians are watching a narrow map. Interactive Crypto placed first support at $62,000, about 4.8 percent below spot, with resistance at $68,000 on the upside; The Sunday Guardian framed the tighter battle at $64,000 and $66,000. A post-Fed close above $66,000 would signal that the July low was a durable bottom, while a loss of $62,000 would put the June lows back in play.

Beyond the rate decision itself, the calendar is dense. Second-quarter US growth figures, weekly jobless claims and a heavy slate of corporate earnings all land in the same window, any of which could reset expectations for the path of policy into the autumn. For a market that has spent 2026 tracking dollar strength and Treasury yields more closely than any internal catalyst, the macro data will likely matter more than anything native to crypto.

The larger question hanging over the asset class is whether July's flow improvement is the start of a genuine institutional return or a pause in a longer retreat. The answer will not come from a single Fed meeting. But after months in which every rally was sold and every inflow reversed, a market holding $64,000 with fear still dominant and positioning light is, by the standards of this year, a foundation. Whether the Warsh Fed lets it stand is Wednesday's business.